Our staff’s best bets for Monday’s NBA playoffs
Two Eastern Conference series could end Monday night in the Northeast.
The Boston Celtics are looking to complete a sweep of the Nets in Brooklyn. There were no dominating wins in the series, but Boston still delivered all the way while Brooklyn faltered.
About 90 minutes south of Philadelphia, the 76ers are set to obliterate the Raptors (for this season, at least) in Game 5. Joel Embiid delivered a stellar winner in Game 3, but Toronto showed a bit of home life in Game 4 to bring the series back to Philadelphia.
We have three choices between these two games of all shapes and sizes. We have a Kevin Durant player prop, a Moneyline bet, and a Raptors vs. 76ers overall. Check them out below.
NBA odds and picks
Celtics vs Nets Pro
Brandon Anderson: What a miserable streak it’s been for Kevin Durant.
Game 3 was downright embarrassing for Durant. He only sat out for two minutes while being virtually invisible for much of the match. The Celtics have defended KD physically, and he’s just not looking for the fight.
Durant took just 11 shots in 46 minutes and had another below-average game in Game 3. He scored just 16 points and only reached the line twice, a pathetic effort for a guy who looked like the best player in the world during the playoffs last year. .
The Nets are a flawed and incomplete team, and Durant is expected to do it all. He’s registered eight assists, and he’s been managing and creating a lot more of those lately – and making plenty of mistakes along the way.
Durant had five turnovers in Game 3, and it was actually his best game of the series in that regard, with six in each of the first two games. Jayson Tatum has defended him brilliantly, and the Celtics are throwing plenty of other bodies at him as well.
Durant is at 5.7 turnovers per game this series, and that’s not a new problem. While his numbers were terrific in March and April as of 7/31/8, his rounds were up as well. He averaged 4.4 per game and exceeded that line in 14 of 19 (74%). Now his minutes are even higher and should be as close to 48 as he can handle with the season on the line.
Maybe KD finally breaks out and finds his shot, and maybe the Nets make it a series again. But that line is comically low with the way Boston has defended this series. I would have gladly played the most at 4.5, so I’ll definitely take this freebie at 3.5.
Celtics vs. Silver Nets
Rahim Palmer: You wouldn’t know it from what we’ve seen this season and throughout this series, but the Brooklyn Nets were favorites to win the NBA title for much of the season. It turns out that championships aren’t won on paper, and they certainly aren’t with teams that struggle defensively.
If there was one thing you could count on from the Boston Celtics, it would be defense. They ranked first in the regular season defensive rating, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions in their minutes of garbage-free time. That top-ranked defense carried over into the playoffs, making life miserable for Durant.
In a decisive third game, Durant was limited to just 16 points and five turnovers. And outside of a 39-point outburst in Game 1, Kyrie Irving hasn’t been much better. He shot 4 of 13 and scored 10 points in Game 2 and scored 16 points while shooting 6 of 17 from the floor in Game 3.
Throughout this series, the Nets are scoring just 1.08 points per possession, a far cry from what we imagined a team with two of the league’s top 10 scorers was capable of. What’s even more problematic is that the Nets allowed 37 points on 21 turnovers in Game 3, and they have a 15.4% turnover rate for the series.
Along with the turnovers, which led to easy field goals for the Celtics, the Nets weren’t able to slow down Tatum, who has been the best player in this series. He simultaneously slowed Durant while averaging 29.7 points and eight assists. Jaylen Brown also had 22.7 points and a streak of three steals per game.
If you’re betting the Nets, you’re essentially betting that Durant and Irving’s sniping can overcome all of their other issues. In the first three games of this series, it becomes clear that this is not going to happen.
Durant and Irving had unsustainable workloads just to make the playoffs, they just don’t have much in the tank against a Celtics defense that has been downright stifling. Durant and Irving are averaging 43.1 and 41.9 minutes per game, respectively, and the Nets are struggling to stay competitive throughout games.
Tatum, Brown and Marcus Smart are ready to take the plunge to become the crème de la crème of the Eastern Conference. In fact, they’ve been close to qualifying for the past five seasons with three Eastern Conference Finals appearances.
Nets are made in this series. This time the Celtics win the ball rolling.
Raptors vs. Total 76ers
Austin Wang: The 76ers had a great chance to close this series with a sweep in Toronto, but the scrappy Raptors fought hard and were able to stay alive, even after Fred VanVleet left the game with a hip injury. This series returns to Philadelphia, where I’m watching the total in what I expect to be a low-scoring game.
VanVleet will miss this game, despite not having a productive streak. The Raptors will likely field bigger rosters and give more minutes to Thaddeus Young and Precious Achiuwa. Toronto’s score will drop and it will be necessary to rely on its defense. Also, Gary Trent Jr. is still recovering from illness and Scottie Barnes is still nursing an ankle injury.
Joel Embiid will continue to play despite in pain from a thumb injury that will require surgery this offseason, but it was obvious it affected his game as he went 7 for 16 from the field and 21 points, although lower than its average for the season. With Embiid’s utilization rate and James Harden also struggling on the field, it’s not promising for the Sixers.
Finally, Matisse Thybulle will be back in the lineup for Game 5. Even though he only plays 15 minutes, his defensive presence will affect the scoreline, especially against a battered Raptors side.
It’s another win or go home game for the Raptors. I see a fight between these two teams and I take the minus at 210 (up to 209).
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